In the past month, President Trump has thrown Europe into crisis with his apparent capitulation to Russia over the resolution to the Ukraine war. This has only been confirmed by the overly hostile overtures coming from the Whitehouse towards Zelensky, who Trump has gone as far as to describe as a dictator. America, it is possible to anticipate, is withdrawing from European defence, and in doing so is bringing about the biggest crisis in Europe seen since the end of the Second World War. But this is not something Europe should feel blindsided by. It has been a long time coming and the signs have existed for many years now. Europe’s post-Cold War peace dividend is quickly running out, and we must promptly organise or risk becoming prey to a revanchist Russia. Britain can, and must, be at the centre of this organisation.

First, let's understand what has brought about this apparent volte-face in United States foreign policy. While it is true that Trump’s recent moves represent the most extreme break with recent foreign policy, the signs have existed for years. Primarily, it is the culmination of a strategic consensus that has developed among Democrats and Republicans alike which recognises China, not Russia, as the primary strategic threat to the United States. Russia now, in the eyes of the Americans, is a defunct regional pariah, and as such, far less of a threat to their global ambitions. The obvious casualty of this strategic realignment to the Pacific is the United States military presence in Europe, which has been so overwhelming as to make any other European military superfluous. While Trump’s actions have certainly hastened the wake-up call to Europe, it may prove, in the future, to be a blessing in disguise. The United States has good reason to be disappointed with their European allies as, only until recently, most NATO members were failing to meet the two per cent target for member states. This fraying of the transatlantic alliance will likely be a watershed for European security. Trump’s unpredictability proves America can no longer be depended upon to come to Europe’s rescue when adversity strikes, and the increasing American focus on China means this will not just be a ‘blip’ or an issue purely related to Trump. Europe must finally step up and secure its own defence.

Where does this leave Britain? While we can afford to walk an economic tightrope between Europe and the United States in an attempt to dodge the vast bulk of Trump’s tariffs, the same cannot be said for defence. Europe’s security is Britain’s security. We must do more than cooperate with our European allies, we must lead. There are several reasons why Britain is well-placed to do this. First of all, is the fact we are consistently leaders in defence spending, having long exceeded the 2% NATO target and with plans to hit 2.5% by 2027 and 3% in the early 2030s. 

Second is the leading role Britain has already shown regarding Ukraine, where much credit is owed to Boris Johnson who, while perhaps somewhat motivated by a desire to escape an increasingly desperate domestic situation, was a leading voice in galvanising support for Ukraine. This links to the third reason, which relates to Britain’s historic role, which it is seen to fulfil, leading in Europe. While many will attribute this to nostalgic harkening back to the past, Britain’s soft power is still very real, and our unique strength. In one visit to the White House, Starmer secured American sanctions on Russia for another year, the closest statement thus far with regards to a US security guarantee for Ukraine, as well as Trump’s quiet dropping of the Zelensky ‘Dictator’ line. Britain’s voice is respected, and it matters. We have a chance to lead and help shape Europe as a major military power. It is an opportunity we cannot afford to miss.

However, it is true that in a post-Brexit Europe, Britain cannot lead alone. So, we must turn to our greatest historical frenemy: that is France. No one has been more vocal, yet also more outspoken about the need for Europe to develop its own strategic autonomy, independent of the United States, than Emmanuel Macron. Since his presidency began back in 2017, Macron has relentlessly campaigned for further European strategic and military integration. Yet, due to many issues, mostly relating to European states’ domestic politics, these calls have been to little avail. The sheer panic that Trump’s recent comments have sparked among European leaders has undoubtedly convinced many previously weary of the cause of increased European military integration and cooperation to the urgency of its need, including the man all but confirmed to be the next Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, who has given the most stinging words of all to America, calling for European ‘independence’ from the US. Merz and Starmer, though coming from two different political traditions, find themselves in common having both won convincing, yet fragile, election victories with potent threats coming from the Alt-Right, and leading centrist governments that will outlast Trump’s second term into 2029. Starmer can use this shared challenge to build a political alliance that will bring Europe’s largest economy to the heart of its defence. Poland also leads the way, outperforming all other EU members in terms of military spending. This Quartet can and must lead the way in a new European defence framework, starting with an urgent increase in military spending across the board that could be funded with the creation of a rumoured European Rearmament Bank. Then there must be some kind of united European proposal for a peace deal in Ukraine, without which Europe is vulnerable to Trump’s attacks that they are ‘doing nothing’ to end the war. Finally, and this is the more long-term objective of increased cooperation, there must be further integration of European militaries to develop the physical infrastructure and capabilities to ward off any threat to European security.

Starmer was right when he described this as a once-in-a-generation moment for European security. He is now grasping the moment with both hands and must not let go until he succeeds in convincing the rest of Europe that they must step up to the challenge and provide for our defence. Democracy’s modern origins are found in Europe. At this moment of true crisis, where the free world faces, perhaps, its most formidable threat seen for 80 years, it must now look to the oldest bastion of democracy to lead the way.

Alexander Peace

Contributor

28th February 2025