It is becoming increasingly clear that the challenge for Labour at the next election will be to stem the flood of support that is seemingly flowing towards Nigel Farage’s latest, and most significant, challenge to the British political establishment. While one should never underestimate the Conservatives’ ability to reinvent themselves, and the many quirks of Britain’s First Past the Post voting system mean they are still the most likely beneficiaries of Labour’s likely decline in seat count come the next election, under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership the Tories have floundered and lost relevance in political discourse. It is increasingly clear that only Reform has the momentum to threaten Starmer’s craved ‘Decade of National Renewal’. This new challenge requires the government to face tough new political realities; it requires the government to come forward with difficult, but most importantly effective solutions to the country's many ailments. In short, Labour must become comfortable being uncomfortable with itself.

Labour has proven that they have the resilience and strength to stand up to enormous adversity. Their triumph last July was extraordinary in its feat. The Party was taken from its worst showing since the 1930s to a landslide second only to Blair’s. While it would be wrong to ignore the aid of the Conservative Party’s complete implosion in bringing about this once-in-a-century turnaround in political fortune, it is equally as naive to underestimate the importance of four years of ruthless adherence to a program largely the brainchild of the Party’s chief strategist, Morgan McSweeney. Yet, while Labour’s victory was a mile wide, it was also just an inch deep. The collapse of Labour and the corresponding surge of Reform in the opinion polls has shown that the British electorate, apathetic with 14 years of failure, is more volatile than ever. As a result, Labour cannot afford to rest on its laurels; the Party must come out fighting on the issues that the public cares most about, meeting public opinion where it is, not where they believe it ought to be. As the Prime Minister told his cabinet in a six-hour marathon meeting earlier this month, they must be “disruptors or be disrupted”.

But after 14 years in the wilderness, the past seven months have reminded Labour just how difficult governing is. The summer riots represented something akin to a baptism of fire for the new government. It challenged Keir Starmer with his first major crisis as Prime Minister and one which he responded to admirably. What followed over the second half of the year was a massacre of political capital. It began with a speech in the Downing Street Garden, which was perhaps too frank an account of the economic carnage that they had been unfortunate enough to inherit from the Conservatives. Then came the ill-judged decision to announce, months ahead of the already belated budget, the move to means test the winter fuel payments. As Autumn crept in, so too did Starmer’s first scandal, freebie-gate, and very public infighting at the top of the No.10 team. With the addition of the widely criticised Budget, the political disaster perhaps reached its apex. 

As has been common during his time as Labour leader, while Starmer can take his time to decide what should be done, when he does, he is unflinchingly ruthless. And so in October, Sue Gray, who Starmer had spent significant time courting in opposition, found herself replaced as No.10 Chief of Staff by McSweeney. While no doubt an effective organiser, Gray lacked the political instinct to flourish in the role, something the political streetfighter McSweeney possesses in abundance. But this example speaks to the main problem Starmer’s government has found itself posed with, which is its inability to communicate its message to the public. While Labour’s winter reset, kickstarted by Starmer’s Six Missions speech, acted as a successful circuit breaker from their previous doom spiral, the government needs to go further to reclaim the political agenda, and that involves taking on Reform.

What does this look like in practice? First, Labour can’t ignore the threat from Reform: it is real. With the Conservative Party broken after a decade and a half of chaos, Nigel Farage isn’t lying when he claims that he is the real opposition to Keir Starmer. Labour also needs to recognise that, while it is difficult to admit, the reason Reform is so successful is that it speaks to the issues that, rightly or wrongly, the public is crying out for action over. Let's take immigration; this is a problem that Labour has rightly acknowledged must be at the top of the government’s agenda. This does not mean giving the green light to those who are anti-immigrant, or racist, per se, but it does mean recognising that people are entitled and right to have genuine concerns around immigration when it is perceived, as it is now, to be uncontrolled. Labour is already doing much to tackle the issue, including the formation of the Border Force Command, a new partnership with Europe to stamp out criminal gangs, as well as increasing deportations to their highest level in seven years. These are all exactly what Labour should be doing. The problem is that the public isn’t seeing this and until they do, to most of the electorate, the government’s actions will be meaningless figures and lines on a graph. Labour too often find themselves squeamish on these slightly uglier aspects of governing and as a result, they let other malicious actors shape the narrative. The government’s decision to broadcast footage of illegal deportations is a welcome step in the right direction, but they must not let up. Labour must shout this from the rooftops, along with other contentious issues like welfare reform. Only then will they prove their credentials, seize the narrative, and show they are meeting public opinion where it stands.

Don’t be misled though, it is not just a purely defensive game for Labour. You can be assured Reform have their own problems, and Labour is beginning to pick up on this. Chief amongst them is Farage’s chequered relationship with the NHS. As recently as January, when questioned on LBC around introducing an insurance-based model, he stated that he was “open to anything”. What is most surprising about this issue is not how long it has taken Labour to push the issue, but how rattled Reform seems by the attack. You need only look at the energy they have put into disabusing the notion that the NHS is not safe in their hands. However, Farage’s flirtations with NHS privatisation are too extensive, and his quotes too numerous, to make this attack line easy to bat away. The important lesson for Labour in this is that Reform is not invincible, and they do have weaknesses to be exploited. 

Performative politics alone, however, will not secure Starmer his prized second term. While its mastery in opposition is a golden ticket against a failing government, when you are the government, the standards are very different. You must prove your words are more than a catchy slogan, they must deliver for people and improve their standard of living. The words of the American Democrat Strategist, James Carville, are timeless in politics: “It’s the economy, stupid”. It is not an exaggeration to say that the challenge to genuinely deliver in government, in a way that people feel in their pockets, will determine the fate of Starmer’s government. In this Labour can find some solace. With competent and experienced ministers valiantly pushing forward the government’s agenda, the only criticism is the need to adhere to the government’s new favourite buzz phrase; which is to go “further and faster”.

On the economy, Rachel Reeves has found a second wind since the Budget in the new investments secured at various economic summits, a third runway at Heathrow, and the Oxford-Cambridge Arc. Yvette Cooper continues to wage the government's war against the people smuggling gangs, securing cooperation with various European nations, including a crucial deal with Germany, from which many of the gangs operate. David Lammy is busily building bridges across the channel as well as in Washington, where Britain seems more likely than not to be excluded from Trump’s Tariff War. With £26bn of new funding to play with due in April, Wes Streeting will feel that Christmas has come early in the Department of Health. Equally as important, he understands better than anyone the need for reform to come alongside increased funding. Bridget Phillipson too has a health injection of cash on the way, which will undoubtedly aid the drive to rebuild crumbling schools and staff them with 6,500 more teachers. The story is true in every other department, with sound policy triumphing over performative gimmicks. If only the government could convey this to the public in a succinct and compelling narrative. This is why Labour must unapologetically promote its best communicators (Wes Streeting, Darren Jones, and Jess Philips to name just a few) and also champion some of the PLP’s fresh blood with good ideas (the names Keir Mathers and Mike Tapp spring to mind).

It is in the solutions to the country's most pressing problems that the clearest blue water is drawn between Labour and Reform. Reform shares much in common with one of their ideological antitheses, Karl Marx; in diagnosing the problems of Britain (or in Marx’s case capitalism) they are highly effective, yet, like Marx, when it comes to the prescription they offer, they leave much to be desired. Merely a more extreme rendition of the performative gimmicks which characterised the final years of the Conservative government, Reform offers the weakness and cowardice of the easy answer. Labour must be prepared to be uncomfortable with themselves to prove they are alert to the many issues that the country is really concerned with, and show themselves to be the most competent, or indeed the sanest, party to solve them.

Alexander Peace

Contributor

15th February 2025